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Prediction for CME (2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-16T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27722/-1
CME Note: CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is seen as dimming centered around N15W15 starting around 2023-11-16T00:34Z in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery near disk center. Overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraphs with CME: 2023-11-16T04:24Z, which is believed to have originated on the back side. Arrival signature: Characterized by a jump in B_total from around 5.6 nT to a peak of 14.55 nT, with Bz remaining largely neutral with a short southward spike to -5 nT. An increase in density and small spike in temperature and solar wind speed to about 340 km/s are also observed. A separate enhancement in the magnetic field components, possibly associated with the same CME event, is observed leading up to this event seen best from 2023-11-20T05:00Z onward with a gradual increase in B_total up to around 12 nT. Around 2023-11-20T09:12Z, Bt swiftly drops down to around 5-6 nT prior to this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T09:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-11-16T11:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 400
Longitude (deg): 15 W
Latitude (deg): 15 N
Half-angular width (deg): 37

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Stuart Webster & Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 66.37 hour(s)
Difference: 3.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-17T15:27Z

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